I now predict the whole suite will cost US$499. Updates from Final Cut Studio 2 and prior will be US$399. Updates from the new Final Cut Studio will be US$299.

We also predict that you’ll be able to update from the latest Final Cut Studio, and also bundle Logic Studio is for US$499.

As predicted this release only has a few minor updates and improvements – it’s certainly not a complete re-write. I think the engineers were just working on new concepts that they can easily port over to the new code (i.e a better marker system, iChat intergration, better Compressor workflows, etc.). Personally, I still think that the all new FCX is still in development and will come out either at the end of this year, or more likely, next year.

Time will tell of course – but the fact that Apple only released a very “unimpressive” update at a very reasonable price, despite all the time they’ve had between updates makes me think that the developers have been flat out working on other more exciting things…

Remember, we still haven’t seen Apple’s recent product purchase yet – storyboarding. You’d think that that chuck that into Final Cut Studio just for a laugh – but no, not yet. Again, I think they might be saving it for a massive Steve Jobs presentation where they showcase their new operating system, new hardware (i.e. amazingly powerful Macs with touch screens), new software (FCX, new iLife suite, new Logic Studio, etc.) and a whole new world of cloud computing and handy online purchases (i.e. purchase stock footage, sound effects and plugins directly from Final Cut).

Exciting times certainly lay ahead!

It’s not like Final Cut Pro all of a sudden has stopped working. It’s still a great tool, and can tackle most current workflows.

Sure it’s not perfect, and it needs a fair amount of improvement – but apart from a couple of reoccurring bugs, there’s nothing life threatening that needs to be done.

I’m all for FCS3 or FCX or whatever it’s going to be… But I’m also happy to wait a bit longer for Apple to make the impossible possible.

Be patient everyone! Magic takes time…

Given this, I think there’s still a good chance that Apple will announce FCX at the end of this year sometime around the time of Snow Leopard’s release, and also at the same time as new MacPro Towers hit centre stage.

However, given that’s what’s been happening in the world in terms of the financial crisis and also Apple’s recent prices reductions, I am going to retract my previous thoughts on the pricing of FCX and the upgrade path. I now predict that the whole package will be around US$599, with an upgrade from FCS2 priced at US$299, and an educational pricing of US$450.

Why the sudden change of heart? Well, I think Apple now has some serious competition in the prosumer world thanks to Avid’s recent pricing changes, and with software like Sony Vegas and Premiere getting much more advanced and cutting edge, Apple really need to step up and offer something new and at a cheaper price point.

Will this actually happen? I have no idea… But I like to think so, and so far the experts have been off, so maybe I’m actually onto something…!

Having said all this, I’m just guessing like everyone else.

I certainly don’t think Apple will “fall apart”. I think they’re getting bigger, stronger and smarter by the day. I’ve heard great things about Windows 7 – but I’m certainly not going to jump ship in the near future, simply because the Mac platform is just so fantastic for video editing with both Final Cut and Avid.

Keep the comments coming! And thanks for reading!

If Apple does not provide an upgrade offer from Final Cut Studio 2, I will be completely out of the MacPro market for good and move on to a NVIDIA Tesla Supercomputer and work with Adobe software only and 4 NVIDIA GPUs (the new ones coming out).

I’m a CUDA developer and OpenCL developer and also Blender user.

Apple has a history of announcing “The fastest MacPro ever” and then just a few months later, after someone in production has spent $26,000, they release “The fastest MacPro ever” with no upgrade options to Nehelem and of course DDR3 is outdated.

All my friends say that Apple’s “Hardware Blackmail” has a long history to it, but if they keep getting so arrogant as to not allow upgrades and choose full cost, then I am completely out of Apple.

If your prediction turns out to be true, Apple can go to you know where and I’m back on Windows 64-bit and I’ll move over to Logic Pro and Avid, and Autodesk software with Maya. They will have lost my faith for good as this would be the last straw and I will support Adobe and spread the Word about the Rotten Apple with a vengence, if this turns out to be true.

I have a history of support incidents in which I discussed it was unreasonable for Apple not to suggest to someone spending $26,000 on their Hardware and Software that it would be in the CONSUMER’s BEST INTEREST to wait a few months.

They may say it’s legal and “too bad” – but that will be a matter for the FTC to decide if they keep this up — just like they did for the iPhone original release and then price cut (and public pressure made them change). But nothing else is making them change.

If that prediction is true they will become the NEW PREDATORY COMPANY OF THE NEW MILLENNIUM (Microsoft being the former but is being more reasonable now).

I think the company will eventually fall apart w/o Steve Jobs, he balances shareholder interest with Consumer Loyalty – but if FCX will provide no credit for previous users, No Way in He’L will I support Apple after that.

I’m confident they’ll bring over a lot of the technology from Motion into Final Cut eventually meaning that you shouldn’t have to render if you apply a simple motion effect, add a drop shadow to text, etc. I’m also hopeful that you won’t loose renders for silly reasons. For example, if you drag an already rendered clip over the top of another layer, you won’t have to re-render it.

Personally, I think the whole render engine of Final Cut needs reviewing, and I’m hopeful that Apple is already on to it. Looking at the progress they’ve made with iMovie – I think we’ve got a lot to look forward to.

As for Blu-Ray support – I wouldn’t hold your breathe… But, hey! Lots of people think that it’s coming real soon… I doubt it though.

Thanks for reading and for your comments! It’s really appreciated!